Last updated: November 2025
Marbella’s luxury market has entered a consolidation phase following three years of exceptional activity. The Golden Triangle recorded 4,293 transactions in H1, virtually matching the prior year, while prices reached new highs: €4,509/m² average in Marbella’s prime summer quarter, with Puente Romano beachfront commanding €30,000/m². The market has shifted from rapid expansion to sustainable stability, characterised by discerning buyers, realistic pricing requirements, and continued international demand. This report synthesises the latest official data, including Spain’s new Notarial Statistics Portal launched October 2025.
Contents
- What is the current transaction volume across the Golden Triangle?
- How are prices performing across Marbella’s luxury districts?
- What characterises the current supply and demand balance?
- Which nationalities dominate luxury purchases?
- What is the forward outlook for Marbella’s luxury segment?
Executive Summary
Current Market Position:
| Metric | Current (Q3-Q4) | Prior Year | Change |
| H1 Transactions (Golden Triangle) | 4,293 | 4,232 | +1.4% |
| Marbella Average Price | €4,509/m² | €4,005/m² | +12.6% |
| Golden Mile Premium | €5,753/m² | €5,200/m² | +10.6% |
| Foreign Buyer Share (Marbella) | 63.1% | 61% | +2.1pp |
| Average Negotiation Discount | ~10% | ~6% | Widening |
| Inventory (Prime Zones) | -28% vs pre-pandemic | Baseline | Constrained |
Market Characterisation: Consolidation phase. Activity has stabilised at historically high levels rather than contracting. Buyers more discerning, negotiations more complex, but fundamentals remain strong. Price growth continuing at sustainable 5-8% pace. International demand robust with 17+ nationalities active in luxury segment.
What is the current transaction volume across the Golden Triangle?
The Golden Triangle (Marbella, Estepona, Benahavís) recorded 4,293 transactions in H1, almost exactly matching the 4,232 transactions in the same period last year. Q1 delivered 2,339 sales, close to the all-time high of 2,581 reached in Q1 2022 during peak post-pandemic demand.
Transaction Trends
| Period | Transactions | YoY Change | Context |
| H1 Current Year | 4,293 | +1.4% | Consolidation |
| Q1 Current Year | 2,339 | +24.7% | Strong start |
| Q2 Current Year | 1,954 | -6.3% (QoQ) | Levelling |
| Full Prior Year | 8,708 | +5.65% | Recovery year |
| 2022 (Peak) | 10,381 | Record | Post-pandemic surge |
Source: Ministerio de Fomento, Spanish Land Registry
Quarterly Performance by Municipality
| Municipality | Q1 | Q2 (est.) | QoQ Change | H1 Total |
| Marbella | 1,187 | ~1,113 | -6.3% | ~2,300 |
| Estepona | 895 | ~778 | -13.0% | ~1,673 |
| Benahavís | 257 | ~264 | +2.6% | ~521 |
Note: Q2 figures estimated from official percentage changes. Q1 figures from Land Registry.
Marbella and Estepona showed quarterly softening in Q2 after a strong Q1, while Benahavís maintained stability. This pattern reflects market consolidation rather than decline: volumes remain 31% above pre-pandemic levels.
How does this compare to the exceptional 2022?
The 2022 peak (10,381 transactions) represented an anomaly driven by post-pandemic pent-up demand, remote work adoption, and lifestyle migration. Current transaction levels of ~8,500-9,000 annually represent a “new normal” significantly above pre-pandemic baselines but sustainable rather than speculative.
Resale vs New Build Distribution
| Type | Share | Trend |
| Resale | 86.4% | Dominant |
| New Build | 13.6% | Growing (branded developments) |
Resale properties dominate the Golden Triangle market. However, new build share is growing as branded developments (Design Hills D&G, Epic Marbella, UNO Beach) complete and attract international buyers seeking turnkey luxury.
How are prices performing across Marbella’s luxury districts?
Spain’s new Notarial Statistics Portal, launched October 2025, provides municipal-level data based on actual transaction prices recorded in notarial deeds for the first time. This transparency milestone enables more accurate analysis than previous reliance on asking prices.
Official Price Data (Notarial Portal)
| Metric | Value | Period |
| Marbella Average (12-month) | €4,228/m² | To Sept |
| Marbella Average (Q3) | €4,509/m² | July-Sept |
| YoY Price Change | +12.6% | Annual |
Price by District (Current)
| District | Average €/m² | YoY Change | Premium vs Average |
| Golden Mile/Nagüeles | €5,753 | +10.6% | +28% |
| Puente Romano (Beachfront) | €25,000-€30,000 | +8-12% | +460-570% |
| Sierra Blanca | €12,000-€16,000 | +7-9% | +170-260% |
| Nueva Andalucía | €4,225 | +11% | -5% |
| Puerto Banús | €4,225 | +9% | -5% |
| Marbella East | €3,857 | +8% | -14% |
| Estepona | €3,336 | +13-15% | -25% |
| Benahavís | €2,733 | +8.4% | -39% |
Sources: Portal Estadístico del Notariado, Idealista market data, agency reports. Note: Pure Living Properties reported Marbella reached all-time high of €5,410/m² in September.
Which districts are outperforming?
Estepona: +13-15% annual growth reflects continued discovery as an emerging luxury destination. New developments and competitive pricing relative to Marbella core driving appreciation. DOM3 reported +15.1% in May; Pure Living recorded +13.3% through September.
Nueva Andalucía: +11% growth demonstrates Golf Valley’s strengthening appeal. International buyers recognise value proposition: comparable quality to Golden Mile at 40-50% lower price/m².
Golden Mile: +10.6% growth maintained despite highest absolute prices. Branded development completions (Epic Marbella Phase 1 delivered) validating premium positioning.
What do ultra-prime transactions reveal?
Recent record transactions highlight continued depth at the top of the market:
| Property Type | Location | Price/m² | Context |
| Renovated apartment | East Marbella | €20,000/m² | Record for area |
| Duplex penthouse | Monte Paraíso (Golden Mile) | €14,000/m² | Premium established |
| Renovated townhouse | Marbellamar (beachfront) | €11,031/m² | Location premium |
| Golf villa | Atalaya de Río Verde | €12,634/m² | Contemporary new build |
The €70M Sierra Blanca mansion currently listed represents the ultra-prime ceiling, though such properties transact rarely and off-market.
How does Marbella compare internationally?
| Market | Prime €/m² | Marbella Comparison |
| Monaco | €45,000-€100,000 | Marbella 70-85% cheaper |
| Saint-Tropez | €25,000-€40,000 | Marbella prime comparable |
| London (Mayfair) | €30,000-€50,000 | Marbella 40-60% cheaper |
| Dubai (Palm) | €15,000-€25,000 | Marbella prime comparable |
| Marbella (Puente Romano) | €25,000-€30,000 | Regional benchmark |
Marbella offers compelling value versus established global luxury markets, explaining continued international buyer interest despite local price appreciation.
What characterises the current supply and demand balance?
The market operates under structural supply constraints: inventory in prime zones has fallen an estimated 28% from pre-pandemic levels, while demand remains robust from international buyers.
Supply Indicators
| Factor | Current Status | Implication |
| Active listings (prime) | -28% vs pre-pandemic | Supply constrained |
| Days on market (correctly priced) | Rapid absorption | Seller strength |
| Days on market (overpriced) | Extended, price cuts required | Buyer selectivity |
| New development pipeline | €3.2bn under construction | Future supply |
| PGOM approval | Provisional (enables future development) | Medium-term supply relief |
The Pricing Gap Challenge
A notable market characteristic is the gap between seller expectations and actual values. Following three years of consistent appreciation, some sellers have listed at ambitious prices that don’t attract viewings. Market participants report:
- Correctly priced properties selling at or near asking, often quickly
- Overpriced listings languishing, eventually requiring 15-20% reductions
- Average negotiated discount widening to ~10% (from 6% in prior year)
- First listing moment critical: miss the active buyer pool and you’re targeting slower monthly flow
This doesn’t indicate market weakness but rather maturation: buyers are more discerning, conducting due diligence, and unwilling to overpay. The era of rapid price escalation accepting any listing has evolved into careful valuation assessment.
How tight is inventory in different segments?
| Segment | Inventory Status | Buyer Competition |
| Turnkey beachfront villas | Very limited | High (multiple offers) |
| Renovated sea-view gated | Limited | Moderate-High |
| Original condition requiring work | Adequate | Moderate |
| Inland without views | Available | Lower |
| New branded developments | Selling well in construction | Waitlists on premium units |
The “turnkey, sea-view, gated community” villa segment remains acutely supply-constrained, commanding premiums and multiple offers when correctly priced.
Which nationalities dominate luxury purchases?
International buyers represent 63.1% of Marbella acquisitions (year to September), with the luxury segment showing even higher concentration (estimated 80%+). Málaga province recorded 33.29% foreign buyer share in Q2, virtually unchanged from prior year.
Buyer Nationality Distribution
| Nationality | Share | Trend | Average (Luxury) |
| British | 13% of foreign (8% of total) | Stable (share declining) | €4-6M |
| Dutch | 9.6% of foreign | Growing | €3-5M |
| Swedish | 8.8% of foreign | Stable | €4-6M |
| German | ~8% | Stable | €3-5M |
| Polish | 5.1% | Growing strongly | €2-4M |
| American | 5-6% | Growing (+34% YoY) | €5-8M |
| Middle Eastern | 6-8% | Growing | €6-12M |
| Belgian | ~4% | Stable | €3-5M |
Sources: Spanish Land Registry, Notarial Portal, agency transaction data. Nationality percentages refer to share of foreign buyers (63% of total market). In the luxury segment (€3M+), foreign buyers represent 80-90%+.
What’s driving nationality shifts?
British resilience: Despite Brexit complications (90-day rule, healthcare access), British buyers remain the largest foreign nationality. Absolute volumes stable; declining share reflects other nationalities growing faster.
American acceleration: +34% year-on-year growth driven by direct Malaga flights, “California of Europe” positioning, and tech/finance wealth seeking lifestyle relocation. Average purchases at higher price points (€5-8M).
Eastern European emergence: Polish buyers now represent 5.1% (up from minimal presence five years ago). Lithuanian and Ukrainian buyers also increasing. This demographic typically purchases €2-4M properties, diversifying the buyer base.
Middle Eastern growth: Dubai-Malaga direct connectivity transformed accessibility. Middle Eastern buyers concentrated in Golden Mile beachfront and Sierra Blanca, purchasing at highest average values (€6-12M).
Buyer Profile Characteristics
| Characteristic | Current Profile |
| Average age | 52 years |
| Age distribution | 41-60 (55%+ of buyers) |
| Financing | <10% require mortgages (luxury segment) |
| Purchase purpose | Second home (45%), primary (35%), investment (20%) |
| Active nationalities | 17+ in luxury segment |
| Buyer behaviour | More discerning, longer decision cycles, assertive negotiation |
The low mortgage dependency (<10% in luxury) insulates the market from interest rate sensitivity that affects broader Spanish property markets.
What is the forward outlook for Marbella’s luxury segment?
Market fundamentals support continued stability with moderate appreciation. The consolidation phase represents healthy maturation rather than weakening.
Forward Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability | Volume Outlook | Price Outlook |
| Continued Growth | 25% | +8-12% | +8-10% |
| Base Case (Consolidation) | 55% | +2-5% | +5-8% |
| Moderation | 20% | Flat to -3% | +2-5% |
What supports the base case?
Positive Fundamentals:
- International demand diversifying (American, Middle Eastern, Eastern European growth)
- Supply constrained in prime locations (down 28% from pre-pandemic)
- Cash-buyer dominance insulating from rate sensitivity
- PGOM approval providing development certainty after decade of planning limbo
- New Notarial Portal improving market transparency
- Tourism strength (record hotel occupancy supporting rental yields)
- Branded development pre-sales validating pricing (Design Hills, Epic Marbella)
Risk Factors:
- Global economic uncertainty affecting discretionary luxury spending
- Golden Visa ended (April) removed one demand driver
- Rental regulation tightening (Decree 31/2024) affecting investment calculus
- Development pipeline (250-350 Golden Mile units completing 2025-2028) creating supply
- Overpricing by sellers extending transaction timelines
How will supply evolve?
| Factor | Impact | Timeline |
| PGOM approval | Enables ~9,000 pending homes in municipality | Medium-term (3-5 years) |
| Branded developments completing | 250-350 luxury units | 2025-2028 |
| Land constraints | Structural limitation | Permanent |
| Licensing complexity | Slows new supply | Ongoing |
The PGOM approval represents a significant step toward supply relief, though new development takes years to materialise. In the interim, prime inventory remains constrained.
What regulatory changes affect buyers?
| Change | Status | Impact |
| Golden Visa (real estate route) | Ended April | Minimal (<1% of transactions historically) |
| Tourist rental licensing | Stricter (Decree 31/2024) | Affects investment returns |
| 21% VAT on short-term rentals | Proposed (state level) | Could redirect to long-term |
| Notarial Statistics Portal | Launched October | Improves transparency |
| Non-EU buyer restrictions | Under discussion | Monitor but not imminent |
Key Questions for Current Buyers
Is now a good time to buy Marbella luxury property?
The market favours buyers who: (1) identify correctly-priced properties and move decisively, (2) accept that “bargain hunting” in prime locations is unrealistic, (3) take advantage of widened negotiation margins on overpriced listings. The consolidation phase offers more balanced conditions than the frenzy of 2022, but quality inventory remains scarce.
How much negotiation is realistic?
Current market data suggests ~10% average discount from asking (up from 6% previously). However, this varies significantly: correctly-priced prime properties sell near asking; overpriced listings may eventually accept 15-20% reductions after extended marketing.
What purchase costs apply?
| Cost | New Build | Resale |
| Transfer Tax (ITP) | N/A | 7% (Andalucía) |
| VAT (IVA) | 10% | N/A |
| Stamp Duty (AJD) | 1.2% | Included in ITP |
| Notary/Registry | ~0.5-1% | ~0.5-1% |
| Legal Fees | ~1% | ~1% |
| Total Additional | ~12-13% | ~9-10% |
Can I still get residency through property purchase?
No. Spain’s Golden Visa real estate route ended April. Property purchase no longer provides residency path. Alternative options include: Non-Lucrative Visa (requires 183+ days annual residence, proof of income), Digital Nomad Visa (for remote workers), or other investment routes (€1M+ in funds/shares/bonds).
Methodology and Data Sources
This report synthesises data from multiple sources:
- Transaction volumes: Ministerio de Fomento, Spanish Land Registry (official government data)
- Price data: Portal Estadístico del Notariado (new official municipal-level data from October), Idealista asking prices
- Buyer demographics: Land Registry nationality data, agency surveys
- Market sentiment: Industry reports, agency intelligence
Note on Notarial Portal: Spain’s Portal Estadístico del Notariado launched October represents a significant advancement: actual transaction prices (not asking prices) at municipal level, buyer demographics, financing data. This report incorporates this new official data source.
For exclusive access to Marbella’s most exceptional luxury properties and comprehensive market insight, contact our specialized advisory team at marbella@blackprive.com
About the Author
Alexander Thornbury MRICS analyses European luxury property markets for UHNWI buyers and family offices. With 15 years advising international clients at leading global property consultancies, he specialises in cross-border transactions and tax-efficient property structuring. Alexander holds MRICS accreditation and contributes market intelligence to Black Privé’s research library.
Disclosure: This report provides market analysis based on available data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Black Privé maintains editorial independence in all market analysis.
Data Sources:
- Portal Estadístico del Notariado (launched October)
- Spanish Land Registry (Registro de la Propiedad)
- Ministerio de Fomento transaction data
- Christopher Clover, Panorama Marbella Market Report
- Idealista market statistics
- Agency transaction data (multiple sources)
Report Date: December 2025
Updated quarterly
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